Just a few weeks from the end of the 2026 midterm elections, there are all sorts of variables that could affect the outcome on the margins. There remain many races for House, Senate and governorships that are very close. Polling errors could be painting an unduly rosy picture of Democratic prospects. Late ad blitzes or candidate debates may tilt the balance here and there. "October surprises" remain a possibility, or even a "November surprise" by way of Trump administration efforts to suppress or intimidate voters.
