In 2018, Abdul El-Sayed ran for governor in Michigan. He had a resume full of credentials including stints at the University of Michigan, Oxford, and Columbia for medical school — but no political experience. He conducted a Bernie-style progressive campaign against Gretchen Whitmer but found himself stonewalled by the political establishment and powerful interest groups. In the end, he faced a sedated electorate disinterested in a campaign centered around getting money out of politics and untangling the octopus-like ties between government and big business.
El-Sayed lost to Whitmer by 22 points.
Now it’s 2026 and El-Sayed, an Egyptian-American, is running a Bernie-style crusade with a mantra of “money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for all.” Gretchen Whitmer and the Michigan Democratic Party establishment have endorsed Haley Stevens, his opponent. AIPAC has dropped tens of millions of dollars on behalf of Stevens and El-Sayed has been outspent 12 to1 heading into Tuesday’s primary.
El-Sayed is polling ahead of Stevens by 10 points.
Eight years is a long time.
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE — like Halley’s Comet — a campaign comes along when the traditional boosts of endorsements and money no longer work and start looking like a mutually agreed suicide pact.
Welcome to Haley Stevens’ reality. While the mid-Michigan Democrat has received online fame/infamy for her thick Midwestern accent and a promise to “stick-it-to-’em, — although it’s not quite clear who she wants to stick it to — Stevens went about the primary race in her trademark worker bee style.
In addition to Whitmer, Stevens — who has served in the U.S. House since 2019 — has the backing of retiring Senator Gary Peters, former Senator Debbie Stabenow, and Chuck Schumer. Representative Jim Clyburn came to Detroit to campaign for her. The airwaves are saturated with the tens of millions being spent by AIPAC, a longtime Stevens backer, linking her real work on Barack Obama’s auto industry bailout to an implied endorsement by Obama, which has not actually happened.
The money being spent on Stevens is to make sure that El-Sayed does not become the first Muslim elected to the United States Senate. None of that has worked if the polls are to be believed. Last Monday, Stevens went after El-Sayed in the race’s last debate for being, well, too popular.
“My opponent here, Abdul, he is such a talented guy,” said Stevens. “He’s written three books, he’s had 300 podcasts. You know, he’s had all this attention, but the deal is we don’t need a celebrity candidate. We don’t need a celebrity senator. We need somebody who is committed to six years of hard, unglamorous work.”
The old political saw of “we need a work horse, not a show horse” usually works in Michigan, a state that has elected a series of hardworking but uninspiring Democratic senators for decades.
So what’s changed? Talking to voters and activists in Michigan, it comes down to Gaza and Kamala Harris.
In 2022, Michigan lost a congressional district after the census and Stevens faced off against fellow incumbent Andy Levin, the scion of a storied Michigan political family and the president of his synagogue. AIPAC didn’t appreciate Levin’s mild support of a two-state solution in the Middle East and spent millions on Stevens’ behalf and she won easily.
At a July 30 El-Sayed event in Ypsilanti, Levin was asked what had changed since his 2022 loss. He gave a succinct answer: “Gaza.”
In this campaign, El-Sayed has hammered Stevens for the AIPAC expenditures. What was once a political life preserver for Stevens is now an anchor dropping her to the ocean’s floor.
Some of El-Sayed’s most strident critics have tried to label him as antisemitic because of his opposition to further unrestricted military aid for Israel. (He often reminds reporters that he is also against unrestricted military aid for Egypt.) El-Sayed also enjoys poking the AIPAC bear directly, something rarely seen in American campaigns. In a recent interview, El-Sayed addressed the organization.
“You picked the least capable candidate in America,” he said, referring to Stevens. “If you think you can beat money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for all, come.”
This led Stevens to tweet: “Everyone in America understands you want to blame all of your problems on Jewish Americans.”
Back in Ypsilanti, Levin maintained that Harris’ Michigan loss was not because of the number of votes Trump got, but because Harris pursued, as Levin described it, the “mushy middle” and left voters uninspired and disinterested. (Stevens’ supporters would vigorously push back that it was El-Sayed and other progressives backing an uncommitted slate against Joe Biden during the Michigan presidential primary that dampened voters’ enthusiasm.)
The event was held at the Michigan Firehouse Museum and afterward Levin pointed at the spoked wheel of an old-timey fire truck. “We’re always told the battle is for the middle of the spoke,” says Levin. He then moved his hand an inch to the left of the spoke. “But what if we strengthened and inspired this part?”
Stevens’ closing argument is centered around electability. Her supporters have pushed dubious polls suggesting she would fare better against Republican nominee Mike Rogers. Michigan politicians who lambasted El-Sayed for his uncommitted stance — he quickly supported Harris when she was elevated to the top of the ticket — are now suggesting they couldn’t possibly support El-Sayed in the general election. Stevens is stressing her ability to attract, well, the mushy middle in November.
“I am the only one on this stage who has beaten MAGA four times,” says Stevens, citing her congressional victories in competitive suburban congressional districts.
That might wash in a normal political year, but 2026 is different. On Tuesday, Michigan Democrats will answer a simple question: What if we support passion and change over safety?
The answer could reverberate through the party for years.
