London: Andy Burnham is about to achieve an astonishing rise to power in a way rarely seen in the Westminster system in Britain or elsewhere, including Australia.
Until last Thursday, he was the mayor of a major city but had no seat in parliament. Now he is the obvious choice to be the country’s next prime minister. And he seems certain to get there without a ballot.
This is a radical departure from the leadership spills the British and Australian public have seen over the years. Burnham emerged as the clear leader before he was even sworn into parliament in the House of Commons on Monday afternoon, local time (shortly after midnight AEST).
In most cases, the challenger comes from within cabinet – although Paul Keating quit the executive to defeat Bob Hawke at a second challenge in 1991 – and has recent ministerial experience at the top of government. That is not the case with Burnham.
Labour, in its desperation, has turned to an outsider to rescue its government. The outcome is a foregone conclusion after three steps that took place within two hours on Monday morning in Britain.
First, Keir Starmer said at 9.30am that he would step down as prime minister. Next, Burnham posted on social media at 11.02am to say he would put himself forward as leader. Then, at 11.05am, potential challenger Wes Streeting, a former health secretary, announced that he would not run and would instead back Burnham.
Other contenders for the leadership might emerge, but they would have a high hurdle to join the contest. Under Labour rules, they would have to gain endorsements from 81 Labour MPs, out of 403 in the House of Commons, to force a ballot. That is why Burnham’s elevation now seems so certain.
This is a bizarre turn of events for Labour, which was elected to government just two years ago. It is only happening because Starmer could not lead, and his MPs could not hold their nerve. A leadership change like this, just as in Australia, is an admission of failure – not just for the leader, but for the party room.
While Starmer took Labour to a landslide victory at the 2024 election, he and his MPs were unready for government. And it showed. When he attempted difficult changes such as welfare reform, MPs rebelled and he backed down. Then Labour sources would complain in the press that he was weak.
This became a poisonous dynamic in a parliamentary party full of panicky MPs who were in the Palace of Westminster for the first time. Starmer could not impose discipline on querulous ministers and backbenchers. He was an experienced lawyer but had never been a minister in government and had not learned the art of politics. He was not only a bland communicator in public, but he could not outsmart his rivals inside and outside the party.
There were lessons from Australia if Starmer and his MPs had bothered to learn them. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivered a speech at the Labour conference in Liverpool last September to tell the assembled MPs to act on tough policy problems and stay unified.
“Delivering change is more difficult than demanding it,” Albanese said at the conference. “Working within the system is tougher than railing against it.”
Whatever the criticism of Albanese and Labor in Canberra, the prime minister and his cabinet colleagues have made serious policy changes, and their caucus members have held their nerve.
In contrast, Starmer kept drifting and his cabinet colleagues kept sniping. And the Labour MPs in Westminster talked endlessly about their direction without showing the slightest sign of unity.
Burnham is not a political novice. He knows Westminster and rose to become health secretary in the year before Labour lost power in 2010. He left parliament to become Greater Manchester mayor for almost a decade. He has proven he is a deadly political operator: just look at the way he has torn down Starmer and, with the help of the press, positioned himself as the uncontested leader.
Streeting, a centrist with big ideas for economic reform, is a compelling candidate for Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Labour ranks lean further to the left, however, and Burnham may listen to them. Streeting is a known admirer of Keating – they met in 2023 – and would know the Hawke/Keating example of combining a popular prime minister with a reformist treasurer.
So much is possible, in theory, but this upheaval shows that, in fact, Labour is a mess. It was not ready for government in 2024 and there is no reason to be confident it has learned the lessons from its failure.
A week ago, Burnham was in charge of buses and garbage collection. Next, he will be running the country. He is hugely popular within Labour ranks, but the party is taking an incredible risk. Leadership spills usually lead to an eruption of enthusiasm for the new prime minister. The disappointment comes later.
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David Crowe is Europe correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.